In the mayoral race, there was no spoiler. It was a straight up three-horse race, and Vision won by a decent stretch. Had Bob Kasting stayed in the race, he would in large part have taken anti-Vision votes away from NPA and thus widened the gap even further. In the end it didn’t matter.
But it isn’t so simple when you look at the numbers in the all-important Council contests. It seems to me that the vast majority of Vancouver First votes would have come from the conservative side of the NPA. Had Vancouver First not interjected itself into the Council race, it is reasonable to suppose that some or all of their vote would have gone to NPA candidates.
Ian Robertson and Gregory Baker were less than 3,000 votes shy of overtaking both Geoff Meggs and Tim Stevenson. Just a reasonable part of the 17,000 votes received by Mercedes Wong and the 9,000 votes given to Federico Fuocco if given to Robertson and Baker would have given us a Mayor and Council (5 Vision, 5 NPA, 1 Green) in which Adriane Carr held the casting vote in any disputes between the bigger parties.
But that isn’t to be because Vancouver First decided to expand from its natural home in Parks Board politics and move into more general muncipal issues with a conservative twist. That decision, that vote splitting on the right, has in large measure given us a Vision majority for another four years.