Most people assume that “experts” know what they are talking about. We quite naturally look for some certainty in the information given to us, especially information that we cannot immediately check for ourselves. However, we are often sadly abused and learn that the so-called “experts” simply have some fancy mathematical formula to cover what is essentially flipping a coin.
The latest lesson in this regard is that Transportation Departments across the US simply have no idea how to predict traffic volumes into the future. Thanks to DC. Streets Blog, we have this graph showing aggregate predictions over a number of years:
“Combined traffic projections from state and regional transportation agencies (the colored lines) have been wildly off the mark (the black line shows real traffic levels) for more than a decade. Image: SSTI … [T]hese wildly incorrect traffic assumptions are routinely used to justify costly road expansions.”
I’m sure that Jerry Dobrovolny and the City of Vancouver Transportation folks do better than this. Should I be?
Posted by jakking 
Jak's View of Vancouver v.3 