The Art Market: The Next Act

Next week we will have the first chance since the November Sales to see what further effect the the deepening economic crisis is having on the high-end fine art market.  Both Sotheby’s and Christies have important Impressionist and Modern Art auctions in London.

Sotheby’s goes first on Tuesday 3rd, but to my mind their show is less attractive than the Christie’s show the next day.  The minimum estimates at Sotheby’s are £41m and the high estimates total £60m, with a Degas sculpture and a Modigliani painting at the top end.

At Christies, the show’s minimum estimate is £46m, maximum £66m, not including the top-rated Monet for which the estimate is private.  Another Monet is also in the top five, along with a Toulouse-Lautrec, a Modigliani, and a Vuillard.

I believe my favourite piece in the two shows is this “La cuirasse d’or” by Kees Van Dongen.  Estimate range is $2.1 million to $3.5 million.

The Sale Ends

Since our last report, a $2 million Chagall, a $10 million Cezanne, another $3 million Pissarro, and a $20 million Monet all failed to sell.  Renoir’s beautiful Portrait de Nini made $5.5 million, within the estimates range, but his portrait of Louise Benzel made only $3.4 million, more than half a million below the low estimate.

The Surrealists were, quite rightly, all over the place.  A delightful Dali miniature sold for $542,500 (see image left), well within its estimate, but a strange little statue of his failed to sell.  A Klee was below estimate, but a Jean Arp work and one by Rene Magritte both climbed above the minimum bar.

The second half of the evening didn’t see any improvement for Picasso.  His Nus Masculins sold for $1.8 million, well under the $2 million pre-sale minimum estimate, and Le Modele dans l’atelier was bought in.

A total of $224 million was paid — and a quarter billion can’t be a bad haul in these straitened times.  But still, a lot of canvas didn’t get on the moving van.  The catalogued minimum for the show didn’t include the Malevich (sold for $60 million), Munch’s Vampire ($38m.) or Danseurs au repos ($37m.)  Deducting those amounts from the take leaves just $89 million actual against the minimum estimate of $218 million for the balance of the catalogue.  Not so great.

Update: The New York Times today has a review of the sale that comes to much the same conclusions as me.  However, it includes good details about price guarantees the auction house has to honour to its cost, and the “irrevocable bid” — the only bid, in fact — that pushed Malevich to such heights.

The Sale Begins

The Impressionist and Modern Art Sale at Sothebys in New York has just begun.  And the Henti Matisse that started the sale went for $902,000, well positioned within the range of pre-sale estimates.   So far so good.

The next three lots (Kandinsky, Vlaminck and Beckman with a minimum aggregate estimate of $6.5m) seemed not to have sold.  A small Picasso with a pre-sale estimate of $6m – $8m hammered out just below $5m.  But then….

A work called “Supremacist composition” by Kasimir Malevich has sold for $60 million!   It had a pre-sale estimate that was not made public, so I guess they knew something like this was likely to happen.  Extraordinary for a work of this type (see image at right).

A $7m – $10m Van Gogh just went by without selling, as did a $1.5m estimate Sisley.   Some Monets are up next.

Two Monets, a Pissarro and the first of the Degas fetched at or just below their minimum estimates.  But Degas’ Danseuse au repos fetched $37m against a private estimate.  Two more Degas have just come in a touch below expectations, and two others, with minimum estimates of $10.5m to $14m went unsold.

These failures were followed by another Monet and another Pissarro, both of which hammered down at about 10% below minimum estimates.   This seems to be about the level this sale is reaching.   I wonder if the Malevich was a surpise or expected or whether it, too, failed to meet its private expectations (hard to imagine at $60m for a non-household name).

Edvard Munch’s evocative Vampire has sold for $38m.  The pre-sale estimate was private, so it is hard to guage the success of this particular lot (see image at left).

A colourful still life by Matisse ($8m to $10m) went unsold, but Toulouse-Lautrec’s Bal masque made $4.5m, half a million above its minimum estimate.

The big Modigliani is up next with an estimate of between $18m and $25m.    But — it passes unsold, along with a $6m Picasso, a $12m-$18m Matisse, and a $7m Giacometti.

The Picasso’s also continue to under-perform, with Bouteille de bass et verre missing the $1.2m minimum by almost $300,000, while a Matisse portrait of a woman sitting has crept $200,000 over its $4m minimum.

Now there are three works by Boris Grigoriev that, together have done rather against estimates.  The first made $3.7m (estimated $2.5-3.5m), the second $3.2m ($4 -6m), and the third $1.1m ($600,000-800,000).

…continuing coverage…

Will The Real Money Show Up

I’ve been tracking the contemporary art auctions for clues as to the effect, if any, the financial crisis is having on the luxury art market.  The figures from several of the sales this month seem to suggest some slowdown.  However, these sales tend to have just a few stellar items along with many lots of more retail-level art.  And one’s view of the market can easily become skewed by too little data.

On 3rd November, Sothebys in New York is holding an “Impressionist and Modern Art” sale.   There are 71 lots and 63 of the lots have estimates of $1 million and above.  24 lots are estimated to fetch more than $5 million.  And there is a Modigliani at $25 million (see image) and a Monet at $22m.   In addition, there are four other lots — including a Picasso, a Degas and a Munch — that have unpublished estimates.

This is an auction for serious collectors and high rollers only.   This could be a real test.

Damn The Markets, Art Still Sells!

This week sees a rash of auctions in Europe; and early indications are for a continuing strong interest from the big money.

Earlier today, “Le Basin aux Nympheas“, a Monet water lilies that hasn’t been seen in public since 1971, was sold for $80,451,178 (including premium).  This is the highest price ever obtained for a painting at auction by Christies in Europe.

Other items of interest:  a Degas went for $26.5million; a reclining woman by Henry Moore fetched $8.4m; and even Russian cubist Vera Rockline’s “The Card Players” (see right) was sold for $4m.  A couple of Miros failed to meet their minimums, though.

There is a second day at Christies tomorrow and on Monday, the auction house holds the sequel to its successful Post-War show, with yet another huge Lucian Freud piece (“Naked Portrait With Reflection”) at its heart.

The estimate is $30 million.  We’ll see